Workshop on modeling earthquake source processes: from tectonics to dynamic rupture; October 8-10, 2018, Pasadena, CA

California Institute Of Technology, Pasadena CA

Investigators

Abstract

Much progress has been made in recent years in understanding earthquake source processes from field observations, laboratory studies, and numerical modeling. Yet studies of the earthquake source face significant challenges, amplified by the remote nature of most observations, vast ranges of relevant spatial and temporal scales, and a long list of interactive physical mechanisms each with the potential to significantly contribute and even dominate the behavior of the earthquake source. This workshop will explore future strategies for developing predictive earthquake models that consider all of the available knowledge about earthquake sources and highlight the most crucial gaps in our understanding. Such models can eventually move society beyond making conclusions based on short-term incomplete earthquake data. The broader impacts of this project are the focus on improving our understanding of earthquakes and their associated hazards and support for a diverse and early career set of researchers to participate in this activity. The proposed workshop will develop future strategies for developing realistic earthquake source models that couple multiple temporal scales: dynamic rupture, interseismic periods, earthquake sequences, short-term tectonics; multiple spatial scales: shear zone/fault core, damage zone and deeper extensions, fault segments, fault networks; and multiple physical and chemical factors: fluid effects, inelastic processes, realistic geometry/roughness, heterogeneity. The discussion will be directed towards identifying developments in numerical methodologies and resources needed for such modeling as well as key required laboratory and observational inputs. The targeted topics will include (i) which novel numerical methodologies are needed for resolving non-planar interfaces/realistic geometries, combinations of dynamic effects and long deformation histories, interaction of failure and fluid flow, and coupling earthquake cycles with short-term tectonics; (ii) how to constrain the needed rheology of faults and bulk by combining new and existing results into comprehensive theory-driven understanding of rock behavior; (iii) how to properly interpret field observations and harnessing big data to observe the previously unobservable; (iv) targeted areas for rapid progress within the next 10 years; and (v) new community initiatives that would provide a substantial boost to the field. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.