Collaborative Research: P2C2--High Frequency Hydroclimate Extremes and Synoptic Climate Drivers in Western North America at the End of the Little Ice Age

University Of South Carolina At Columbia, Columbia SC

Investigators

Abstract

Understanding extreme climate events like floods and droughts, which have major impacts on society and ecosystems, has become particularly important in light of potential future changes in climatic extremes. Paleoclimate data have played a critical role in placing recent hydroclimate extremes within a longer-term context, but biases in paleoclimate proxies remain a major challenge for the reconstruction and interpretation of past climate extremes. This is particularly applicable to the North American West Coast where a limited number of seasonal extreme precipitation events account for a large proportion of annual precipitation totals. This research will integrate historical climatology and dendroclimatology to address pre-instrumental capture of extremes through a focus on the 1800s, a time period including a range of climate extremes that are not represented in the instrumental record. Specifically, the aims of this project are to: (1) extract 19th century historical data from archives and repositories to derive subseasonal precipitation and snow frequency reconstructions; (2) use tree-ring data to assess the ability of existing records to capture hydroclimatic extremes (with a focus on atmospheric river events) and seasonally-specific precipitation on the West Coast; and (3) integrate historical and tree-ring data to create spatial climate surfaces for extreme events in the 1800s and use reanalysis data, gridded paleoclimate reconstruction data, and paleoclimate model output to assess synoptic climate drivers of those extremes. The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include improved understanding of extreme climate events at a seasonal level has broad societal implications, as these extremes are costly hazards with implications for agriculture, water supply, power generation, fire, and other sectors of society. The information derived from this research is potentially useful to water managers, climate modelers, and others who are interested in the characterization of past extreme events, including impacts and driving mechanisms, as well as future hydroclimate extremes. Further impacts of this project include: (1) education and training of graduate students in research methods and dissemination, science communication, and educational outreach; (2) involving undergraduates in hands-on research experiences, allowing them to work through the scientific process; (3) contribution of new, spatially explicit climate reconstructions to the NOAA Paleoclimatology repository; and (4) capitalizing on the excitement of our research themes to engage future generations of scientists through K-12 educational outreach activities involving a partnership with the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.