Evaluating the Impact of Future Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone: Influence of Multicomponent Injection, Climate Change, Latitude, and Seasonality

Harvard University, Cambridge MA

Investigators

Abstract

This project is focused on investigating the potential impacts of future volcanic eruptions on stratospheric ozone. Stratospheric ozone shields the Earth from harmful ultra-violet radiation and hence it is important to understand how volcanic eruptions might impact stratospheric chemistry leading to changes in the protective ozone layer. The primary objectives of this proposal are threefold: (1) characterize column ozone sensitivity to contemporary and future explosive volcanic eruptions as a function of volcanic latitude and season; (2) determine ozone column sensitivity to the direct stratospheric co-injection of inorganic chlorine, bromine, and iodine along with sulfur dioxide from volcanic eruption; and (3) quantify future bromine and iodine alpha factors (the relative ozone-destroying activity of bromine and iodine relative to chlorine) in a variety of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The effort will employ the SOlar Climate Ozone Links model with aerosol microphysics (SOCOL-AER) for the majority of the scenarios. The chemical transport model AER-2D will also be used to quantify the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone for elements of the project where dynamics play a less significant role. A postdoctoral fellow will perform many of the experiments and the work will provide opportunities for the development of research skills by undergraduate students. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.