RAPID: Sensing and Modeling Infrastructure for Storm Surge Monitoring and Forecasting in Coastal Zones

Coastal Carolina University, Conway SC

Investigators

Abstract

The Atlantic Coast is threatened by disasterous storms every year. The dangers of high winds are widely publicized, but flooding has been responsible for more than half of all associated deaths. Unfortunately, existing forecasting capabilities are limited. Failure to predict significant flooding is of obvious concern, but the risks associated with perpetually inflated forecasts could be equally damaging. A citizen who evacuated Hurricane Irma's path based on storm surge warnings, only to return home to limited flooding, might consider ignoring future surge forecasts. Depending on the storm, that decision could be an enormous mistake. This project addresses surge forecasting limitations. The intellectual merit of this project lies in computer and network systems research and computational earth systems modeling research to be undertaken along two connected paths. First, the project will pursue the design, implementation, and evaluation of a fundamentally new approach to achieving high-precision in situ measurement of storm-induced surge in challenging environments. Second, the project will pursue fundamental extensions to an existing modeling system comprising coupled atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic models. The work will focus on assimilation of in situ surge measurements to anchor and refine model outputs prior to, during, and after tropical storms. The broader impacts of this project will be significant: The world's coastal population is growing at an unprecedented rate. In the past four decades, the U.S. coastal population grew by 45%, with more than half of the population living in coastal counties. In the coming decades, coastal states' urban centers are expected to continue to grow. The resulting population density presents significant challenges. The ability of state and local governments to efficiently prepare for and respond to storm surge events is critical. This project will support significant progress toward the development of reliable storm surge monitoring and modeling systems. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.