Effects of Background Wind on the Eastward Propagation of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Suny At Albany, Albany NY

Investigators

Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is referred to organized large-scale tropical convection system that slowly propagate eastward with an average time scale of 40-60 days around the equator. As they do so, they influence global weather patterns. One of the questions that remains to be understood fully is why some of these events move faster or slower than others. This project aims to explain part of the variability in the eastward propagating speed of MJO by linking it to slowly evolving background winds. Through analysis of observed and model data, this project will identify how these background winds alter the movements of the regions of tropical rainfall and the associated global weather patterns. A unique combination of statistics and the background momentum budget analyses will help to isolate the roles of tropical intrusion of extratropical disturbances in regulating the background wind system and thereby inter-event variations of eastward propagating speeds of MJO. Weather models do not predict well how these tropical rainfall patterns evolve. The improved understanding of how MJO interacts with the global weather would help improve weather forecasting in the important period for decision, 2-5 weeks into the future. Better understanding how these background wind patterns influence MJO's propagation also help identify error sources of existing numerical weather prediction models. Graduate students will be trained to perform research activities and will present papers at conferences and submit results for peer review. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.