Political Violence and State Repression

Stanford University, Stanford CA

Investigators

Abstract

This project codes information from 18 book-length volumes of internal investigation reports in a region that experienced one of the largest political upheavals in the 20th century into a database. Insurgencies in collapsing authoritarian regimes have been a repeated and major concern for the U.S. in international affairs. This project capitalizes on the recent availability of these unusually detailed and highly-classified internal investigation reports, compiled by the government of a region that experienced some of the most severe disorders and highest death tolls. The database that will contain close to 6,000 political events and associated casualties, for all 86 cities and counties in the region, along with a range of economic, social, and political data about each locality. The quality, level of detail, and comprehensive coverage of these materials will permit the analysis of state collapse and political violence with an unusual degree of precision and depth. The completed dataset and full documentation will be widely shared and made publicly available at the end of the project. This will contribute to efforts to understand the dynamics of political violence and state repression, and the sources of instability and conflict in highly centralized authoritarian regimes. Data and analysis generated by this project will be valuable for the crafting of policy toward such regions. The dataset compiled in this project will permit the analysis of the endogenous formation of factional identities during political upheavals, while at the same time gauging the impact of exogenous structural features of localities and populations on levels of political mobilization and collective violence. Three structural features of particular interest are ethnic and sub-ethnic populations in an ethnically diverse region, prior divisions within local political networks, and the degree of party-state penetration across 86 rural counties and cities. The dataset will permit the analysis of the factors that influenced the origins and evolution of a highly complex upheaval over the course of several years (1966-1969) that included the collapse of local civilian governments, a popular insurgency that divided into two violently opposed armed factions, widespread and systematic intervention by military units, and overwhelming levels of state repression in order to rebuild local governments. The anticipated analyses will employ event count models, event history analysis, and network analysis to analyze the initial formation of factions and the subsequent evolution of collective violence. The project will contribute to the understanding of violent insurgencies, civil war, and state repression, especially as it pertains to instability and upheavals in highly centralized repressive dictatorships that suffer sudden collapse. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.