CAREER: Causal Connections Between the Arctic and Mid-latitudes

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

The accelerated warming of the Arctic and unprecedented loss of sea ice in recent years have spurred a flurry of research and public interest on how these changes at high latitudes may impact weather at lower latitudes. There is much disagreement on whether we have already witnessed substantial impacts. The focal point of these debates is the question "who-is-causing-who", as changes in high latitudes take place at the same era as those in other latitudes, including mid-latitudes. The question how to infer the causality from data (observations and model outputs) is one of the most outstanding issues that the climate science community needs to resolve urgently. Here, the PI plans to apply causal discovery techniques, a unique type of statistical and data analysis, to the question of causal connections between the Arctic and mid-latitude circulation. These tools will provide insight into the causal pathways connecting Arctic temperatures to mid-latitude weather, quantify the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate these pathways, and assess how these pathways may change in the coming decades. The funded research will advance our understanding of the two-way links between the Arctic and mid-latitude weather, which in turn, can lead to improvements in short-term weather forecasts as well as improvements in predictions of weather/climate variability in the coming decades. In addition, this project will include the development of an online "gateway" of accessible explanations of data analysis techniques with accompanying atmospheric-science-motivated examples for atmospheric scientists: the Data Analysis Tools for Atmospheric Scientists (DATAS) Gateway. The recent explosion of climate data and increasing complexity of earth-system models requires that now, more than ever, atmospheric scientists be equipped with the necessary skills to make novel and robust discoveries. A joint community effort is planned for creating, testing, and disseminating the DATAS Gateway material. These community coordinated research/education activities include peer contributions and review, graduate student workshops, statistical and gateway-developer consultants, and integration into current and planned curricula across seven universities. The DATAS Gateway will not only be a resource for scientists across the globe, but will also allow for the sharing of ideas and tools, spur scientific breakthroughs and support five undergraduate researchers. A sustainability plan will be developed to transition the DATAS Gateway to a community-driven effort to ensure that it outlives the 5-year horizon of this CAREER grant. The project as a whole will additionally support a graduate student and individuals under-represented in STEM by supporting the efforts of six female faculty (the PI and five collaborators). This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.