RAPID: Public Perceptions of Success and Failure in the Governmental Response to Natural Disasters

Michigan State University, East Lansing MI

Investigators

Abstract

This project examines the nature, sources and consequences of citizens' perceptions regarding the governmental response to Hurricane Harvey. Public opinion data, collected from an online survey at several points in time will be matched to government activity and media coverage during the same time periods. We will examine the degree to which the latter two factors, along with personal political predispositions, sociodemographic characteristics, and prior experience with disaster situations, influence mass beliefs about the effectiveness of governmental response operations. We will also determine whether citizens' feelings about the disaster response affect their broader orientations toward government and the political system. The findings from this study should benefit disaster training programs and help emergency management agencies develop stronger response systems. The public response to governmental efforts can have profound consequences for citizen evaluations of incumbent public officials. At the same time, the perceived effectiveness of the response can be a major factor in determining more general feelings about governmental performance. That, in turn, affects the ``leeway'' that is accorded to public officials in subsequent policy making. The distribution of mass responses to governmental disaster policies also affects the public itself. Perceptions of governmental effectiveness feed into the willingness to comply with future directives. Feelings of vulnerability to disasters are related to a sense of social connectedness or social capital. And, the issues associated with disaster response often divide along racial and ethnic lines. The proposed study will provide useful insights for dealing with these kinds of societal problems. The study will rely on data collected from three sources. First, public opinion on perceptions and evaluations of the disaster response, along with other relevant beliefs and attitudes, will be obtained from a nationally representative online survey conducted by NORC's AmeriSpeak program. This will be a panel study in which a sample of respondents is interviewed at several points in time. Second, information about specific governmental actions carried out by FEMA and other agencies will be coded from daily government reports. Third, information about the extent, content, and tone of media coverage accorded to the government response to Harvey will be obtained by monitoring major outlets over the same time period. The use of multiple time points will show how the distribution of public opinion corresponds to variability in both government actions and media coverage of the disaster response. Most of the survey questions will be repeated at least twice on different waves of the panel, thereby enabling cross-lagged models to evaluate causal relationships in the determinants and consequences of individual opinions about the governmental response process.