Assessing the Influence of Zero-Deforestation Supply-Chain Commitments on the Conservation of Ecosystems

Trustees Of Boston University, Boston

Investigators

Abstract

Deforestation has multiple socioenvironmental impacts including land conflict, increasing rural income inequality, biodiversity loss, and hydrological changes. New conservation policies developed by the private sector are being applied to global supply chains to tackle the challenge of deforestation in the tropics through zero-deforestation commitments. Yet there is limited knowledge about the impact of these policies or the enabling conditions that may promote their effectiveness. This project will provide new knowledge on the complex global telecouplings and public-private governance interactions of how zero-deforestation commitments influence land cover change. The research will enhance our fundamental understanding about the conditions under which zero-deforestation commitments lead to ecosystem conservation. The research will directly inform public and private environmental policy as well as civil society efforts toward tropical forest conservation. Through open data sharing and archiving, this project will contribute to improving transparency in food supply chains. This research will study the soy, oil palm, and cattle industries in multiple regions globally and analyze how the socioeconomic and agro-ecological variation across these regions differentially influence outcomes associated with zero-deforestation commitments. The research will investigate four core questions: 1) Are zero-deforestation policies being applied in the most urgent locations of deforestation? 2) How do corporate zero-deforestation policies interact with public policies to influence agricultural profits and inhibit local incentives to deforest? 3) How do differences in timelines and forest definitions in these policies influence land cover outcomes? and 4) To what degree does leakage of land cover change to other regions offset local reductions in deforestation? To answer these questions the investigators will collect and synthesize a comprehensive dataset of land cover maps, supply chain commitments, sourcing behaviors, trade flows, and producer costs of compliance or noncompliance with supply chain commitments. A model will be developed to assess the regional land cover outcomes at a high spatial resolution. Outcomes from this model with be coupled with existing regional models and a global trade model to evaluate impacts of regional commodity-specific commitments on other commodities and biomes. The broader implications of this research will help establish the conditions under which zero-deforestation commitments are likely to achieve ecosystem conservation, and inform the development of effective policy mixes across the private and public sectors.