Rapid: Democratization or De-democratization

University Of Florida, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

One of the major difficulties in understanding how autocracy arises in electoral democracies is the limited data that exist on citizen participation in and support for autocratic moves. Such moves often arise suddenly, making them difficult for analysts to anticipate and study. One such move was the successful effort by President Daniel Ortega to void the participation of his major opponents in Nicaragua's recent and upcoming elections. This case provides us a unique opportunity to examine an effort to install electorally-validated autocracy. By closely examining this case, the findings can impact foreign policy and domestic organizations that support democracy and its development. The project uses a multi-wave survey design. An initial national public opinion survey gauges citizen vote support for Ortega, and then two subsequent national public opinion surveys trace the evolution of citizen attitudes in the months following the initial survey. These surveys will be used to examine the following question: Is citizen support for autocracy truly broad-gauged and sustained, as elected autocrats claim, or is it more limited and subject to rapid decay as the oppressive reality of strong-man rule emerges?