Ecological Similitude and Scaling for Robust Modeling and Predictions of Ecosystem Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

West Virginia University Research Corporation, Morgantown WV

Investigators

Abstract

1705941 (Abdul-Aziz). The goal of this research is to discover the similitude patterns and scaling laws of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes, and formulate robust models to predict the fluxes at variable time and space scales. The underlying hypothesis is that the ecosystem fluxes follow emergent ecological similitude and scaling laws, which will lead to robust estimation and predictive models. The specific research objectives are to (1) identify the dominant drivers and quantify the relative linkages of ecosystem carbon (CO2), latent heat (LE) and sensitive heat (H) fluxes with the relevant climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables at different time and space scales; (2) investigate similitude (parametric reductions), formulate meaningful dimensionless groups, and develop scaling laws (emergent patterns) for the ecosystem fluxes; and (3) formulate spatiotemporally robust empirical models for predicting the ecosystem fluxes from diverse ecosystems. The research will utilize the AmeriFlux data of fluxes, climate, environmental, and ecological variables for different time-scales (e.g., hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly) and periods (e.g., 2000-2015) at numerous sites (above 100) across America, representing gradients of hydroclimatic, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. The research objectives will be achieved by conducting dimensional analysis and empirical modeling, which has successfully been applied in fluid mechanics, hydraulic engineering and stream ecology. The research builds on a previous project on wetland biogeochemical similitude and scaling to robustly predict wetland greenhouse gas fluxes by using chamber-based field data. This project will use flux tower-based eddy-covariance data (AmeriFlux) to generalize the similitude, scaling and robust modeling hypothesis across diverse ecosystems (e.g., deciduous forests, evergreen needleleaf forests, rain forests, grasslands, croplands, wetlands) at variable time (hour to year) and space (site, region, continent) scales. The research will promote environmental sustainability by contributing insights, understanding, and broad knowledge into the emergence (similarity and scaling) patterns of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes. Robust, parsimonious models can be utilized as simple, scale-independent engineering tools to predict the ecosystem fluxes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Research outcomes will be broadly disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, graduate dissertations, reports, YouTube videos, and an open-access project website. The research findings will be utilized to teach two interdisciplinary courses, Ecohydrological Engineering (undergraduate) and Ecological Engineering (graduate), using inductive learning methods. High school students and teachers will also be involved with the research through outreach activities.