Supreme Court Polarization and Its Effects on Judicial Decision Making, the Media, and Institutional Legitimacy

George Washington University, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

The U.S. Supreme Court has become more ideologically polarized over time, with the Court?s center shrinking as more justices populate each end of the ideological spectrum. This has occurred, in part, because Presidents, Senators, and policy groups have increasingly prioritized ideological compatibility and reliability in the appointment process. This project will document the degree of polarization over several Court eras, highlighting periods of low to high polarization. Because the Court has become increasingly divided as it decides some of the most important issues in American politics, each vacancy represents an opportunity to shape the long-term direction of the Court?s decision making. The project seeks to explain how and why polarization matters for the Court?s role in American government. The project consists of five components. First, the study will include extensive data and statistical analyses of the changing levels of Court polarization since 1946, measuring justices? ?swing capacities? to determine how many justices in a given period were swing justices vis-à-vis reliable ideologues. Second, the project will include statistical analyses of how polarization has influenced the direction of the Court?s decision making, while testing whether the existence of at least one swing justice sustains fairly moderate policy outputs over time. Third, by analyzing Supreme Court voting data, the project aims to explain a ?polarization paradox?: As Court polarization has increased over time, both the rates of closely-divided (5-4) case outcomes and of unanimous decisions have escalated. Fourth, by engaging in content-analyzes of media coverage of the Court?s rulings over time, the study will analyze whether the media report on the Court in more political and less legalistic terms in polarized eras relative to less polarized eras. Finally, the project will examine how polarization influences the legitimacy and authority of the Court as the final arbiter of constitutional meaning in American politics. Using an experimental approach, this project will test whether a polarized Supreme Court elicits lower levels of legitimacy from the mass public than a less polarized Court.