Doctoral Dissertation Research: Sectarianism Without Borders: Big Data and Experimental Analyses of Transnational Sunni-Shia Conflict

New York University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

General Abstract Sectarian violence in the Middle East and Arab World have increased to their highest levels since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Violent conflict between Sunni and Shia sects can be found in a number of countries throughout the Middle East. While a large volume of qualitative literature address such this topic, we lack rigorous quantitative studies into the factors that lead to such violence, along with factors that serve to escalate or mitigate sectarian tensions in the region. Relatedly, scholars know little about the effects of heightened Sunni-Shia hostility on citizens' political attitudes and behaviors in the affected regions. Drawing on research in political science and social psychology, the PI will conduct an empirical examination of the causes and consequences of sectarian animosity in the Arab World, paying particular attention to those factors that may lead to reductions in the levels of violence. To gain a deeper understanding of the causes of sectarian conflict, the investigator utilizes a unique data set comprised of Twitter and Google Trends data, real-time event data, public opinion polls, as well as results from a lab experiment. Substantively, this project will offer empirical insights into the dynamics of a precarious source of conflict and violent extremism, with key ramifications both for regional stability and global security. Technical Abstract To examine the causes of sectarian tensions, the PI will use Twitter and event data to explore how exogenous violent events lead to the escalation in sectarian hostility, and the role political and religious elites play in this process. The PI proposes to administer a series of household survey, timed to coincide with Shia religious holidays to assess the causal effect of elevated sectarian tensions on attitudes toward democracy, authoritarianism, and extremism. Additionally, the PI will utilize an experimental design to test the degree to which emphasizing common threats and experiences of victimization might serve to reduce outgroup prejudice among Sunni and Shia Muslims in two ways. First, by conducting the experiment on a sample comprised of students, and secondly, through the use of a Twitter experiment. By adopting innovative methodological approaches that build upon and help reconcile existing theories of intergroup relations, this project makes important contributions to both political science and social psychology. Furthermore, by helping to identify causes and consequence of sectarian hostility, and by providing empirically validated approaches to combat such tensions, this work is poised to provide valuable insights to policy makers and academics alike.