Transitional Justice and the Quality of Political Representation: Testing the Empirical Implications of a Formal Model

University Of Chicago, Chicago IL

Investigators

Abstract

General Abstract This research investigates how former authoritarian elites utilize the secret information acquired by the former enforcement apparatus associated with their respective regimes. The project seeks to learn whether such information can be used to blackmail politicians to make policy concessions, or whether previously undisclosed information about human rights abuses can jeopardize a new democracy's chances of survival. This line of research marks a new direction in comparative politics that examines the relationship between transitional justice (TJ) and the quality of democratic representation. It focuses on policies aimed at vetting political candidates for acts of collaboration with the authoritarian regime, and possible human rights violations committed in the past. This process is known as lustration. In this respect, revealing evidence of past authoritarian wrongs may prevent former authoritarian elites from influencing policy in new democracies. In preliminary work, the Principal Investigator shows that former authoritarian elites' influence tends to decrease with severity of transitional justice, but increases as voters view politicians' involvement with the former authoritarian regime as an important issue. The work also suggests that the effectiveness of TJ policies is reduced in the absence of a free press, as the media's inability to uncover empty threats which allows former autocrats to extract policy concessions. Surprisingly, the magnitude of ideological differences between current politicians and successors of authoritarian elites has no bearing on the ability of former autocrats to extract such concessions. This research will work to develop stronger measure of TJ severity to help evaluate how transitional justice can contribute to stable democratic transitions. Technical Abstract The research project will result in the creation of two novel datasets constructed to test the empirical implications of a formal theoretical model about the effects of transitional justice (TJ). The research will analyze time series cross-sectional data to assess the role of lustration in post-authoritarian states and truth commissions in post-conflict states play in democratic consolidation. Second, the research will generate data that tracks the presence of former authoritarian elites in political parties and in the non-political sector. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how policies that increase transparency of the political process improve the quality of democratic representation in new democracies. This research will shed light on the importance of institutions accompanying transitional justice, specifically a free media, by demonstrating that lustration has the intended effect only under a precise set of conditions in the author's theoretical model. This is the first study that goes beyond studying de jure TJ institutions to study de facto TJ. It does so by seeking to uncover the prevalence of authoritarian elites holding positions of influence following the implementation of personnel TJ. By exploring the value of revealing secret authoritarian legacies, it studies the logic of forward-looking arguments in support of TJ. In contrast to normative arguments in favor of TJ as punishing authoritarian wrong-doing, this project focuses on the truth revealing aspect of TJ and investigates whether such truth revelation enhances democratic representation.