Doctoral Dissertation Research: Responses to Islamist Political Violence and the Moderates' Dilemma

Stanford University, Stanford CA

Investigators

Abstract

General Summary This research projects investigates how do moderate Muslims respond to violence perpetrated in their religion's name. Both transnational and local movements acting in the name of radical Sunni Islamism are at the forefront of domestic and international security concerns. That said, relatively little is known about how and when moderate Muslims react to extremist violent events perpetrated in the name of their shared religious faith. In particular, the research seeks to understand the circumstances under which moderate Muslims mobilize against such violence. The researcher is particularly interested in identifying the political and economic obstacles that make it difficult for groups to express coordinated opposition to the actions of these violent groups. In particular, the investigator theorizes that uncertainty regarding the perceptions support for violence actually leads group members to overestimate support for these violent groups. As a consequence, individuals anticipate significant reputation costs for sharing anti-violent views, therefor they often refrain from sharing their views publicly. This failure on the part of opponents to violent groups to speak out collectively despite their beliefs leads to what the author calls "the Moderates' Dilemma." By learning more about the "Moderates' Dilemma," the results of this study have the potential to provide valuable insight into strategies for countering violent extremism policies globally. Technical Summary The past two decades have seen a significant increase in the salience of extremist movements in the Islamic World. Polls indicate that 70%-95% of Muslims in Muslim-majority countries believe that violence is never or only rarely justified, yet there is significant variation in the responses and political mobilization against violent groups. This project utilizes a multi-method research design comprised of an original survey experiment, twitter data, observational data of participant behavior during two surveys, and fieldwork in Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim-majority country) to develop an explanation for variation in moderates Muslims' willingness to speak out against violent factions of Muslims. In particular, the author argues that despite representing the majority, moderate Muslims face a coordination dilemma that is exacerbated by the extremists' willingness to publicly shame those who identify as moderate Muslims. When faced with the potential reputation costs, moderates will falsify or self-censor attitudes opposing violent groups. This leads to the coordination problem referred to as "the Moderates' Dilemma." These effects vary by individuals' sensitivity to reputation costs and degree of uncertainty regarding others' attitudes.