Doctoral Dissertation: The Political Effects of Rule-Based Social Policies

Harvard University, Cambridge MA

Investigators

Abstract

General Summary This project seeks to explain how rule-based social policy can lead to citizen empowerment. Specifically, this research examines whether the extension of guaranteed public service access to rural-based citizens severs over time the relationship between these citizens and rural political leaders who use clientalistic methods to exert political control. The PI examines the effect of national policies (like the conditional cash transfer Bolsa Familia program in Brazil) affect local politics. This research will collect household survey data on local political attitudes and behavior in Northeast Brazil. The PI collects a targeted stratified sample of 2,040 people in 30 municipalities in three states will facilitate controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. The data will be analyzed using a hierarchical regression model to identify (1) whether political relationships, citizen practices and voting behavior are affected by experiences with national rule-based social policies, and (2) to what extent this relationship varies depending on the municipal and state governance context. Technical Summary This research seeks to understand whether secure access to social policy can turn dependent clients into autonomous and active citizens. It is also designed to help resolve debates about the political effects of rule-based social policy, the project will provide new evidence, tools and datasets to help policymakers understand how policies can shape downstream policy demands and help build effective local democracy. The PI gathers data on citizens' experiences with government, their autonomy and their voting behavior. The PI collects a targeted stratified sample of 2,040 people in 30 municipalities in three states in Northeast Brazil will facilitate controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. This data collection strategy facilitates controlled comparisons between the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of national rule-based social programs. List and conjoint survey experiments are performed to uncover sensitive measures such as voting motivations, political autonomy and exposure to clientelism. Inferential leverage will be improved by screening for respondents who are close to the eligibility thresholds for social policy, and by exploiting the fact that some respondents are on waiting lists where they are eligible but have not yet received a benefit. The data will be analyzed using a hierarchical regression model to identify (1) whether political relationships, citizen practices and voting behavior are affected by experiences with national rule-based social policies, and (2) to what extent this relationship varies depending on the municipal and state governance context.