EAGER: A Novel Theoretical Study of Mid-latitude Atmospheric Predictability

New York University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

This EAGER project will develop a deeper physical understanding of how predictability is fundamentally limited and why it may vary from forecast to forecast. New insights into the connection between the nature of turbulence and predictability will be an important component of this project. Unlike most earlier work on atmospheric predictability that has predominantly relied on linearization and instability techniques, this research will adopt a fully non-linear and probabilistic approach. Consequently insights into the nature of atmospheric predictability when non-linearity is important is be a particular focus of this research. A newly developed theoretical methodology from statistical physics will be applied to the problem of atmospheric predictability in the mid latitudes. This will enable exploration of the nature of statistical predictability limits and variability. Connections between these aspects of statistical predictability and features of the atmosphere such as the mean vertical shear; boundary layer damping and geostrophic turbulence will be thoroughly analyzed. Additionally a new non-diffusive method of parameterizing the fine unresolved scales of motion will be developed.