EAR-PF: Combining Proxy Records and Model Data to Investigate Changing Flood Risks for the U.S. Atlantic Coast during the Past Millennium

Reed Andra J, University Park PA

Investigators

Abstract

Dr. Andra J. Garner has been granted an NSF EAR Postdoctoral Fellowship to carry out research and education plans at Rutgers University. This investigation will focus on studying flooding events during the last millennium in the area around New York City (NYC). The project has two objectives: (1) to assess the effectiveness of a computer model that simulates storm surge heights along the U.S. Atlantic coast; and (2) to examine changing coastal flood risks for the U.S. Atlantic coast over the past millennium. The first objective will be accomplished by comparing proxy records of flooding events and relative sea level rise from along the U.S. Atlantic coast with synthetic tropical cyclones and storm surge datasets derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Last Millennium simulations. To accomplish the second objective, Dr. Reed will collect a sediment core from Union Beach, NJ, to develop a new proxy record of sea level for the region. Results from this fellowship will inform coastal adaptation strategies in high risk regions, providing methods for predicting and mitigating the effects of floods. Outreach activities associated with this work will be carried out in partnership with Rutgers' Raritan River initiative and will consist of using data from the project in lesson plans for local high school and undergraduate classes. Computer simulations models of flood heights during the Common Era will be compared to proxies to examine inconsistencies between model results and sediment records and explore possible reasons for these inconsistencies, such as model forcings, model biases, and internal variability. The new sediment core will be used to investigate return periods during the past millennium of extreme flooding events in New York City and the potential causes of an increased frequency of tropical cyclone landfalls in the region during the latter portion of the Little Ice Age.