RAPID: Evaluating the Top-Two Primary System

Washington University, Saint Louis MO

Investigators

Abstract

General Summary Does the use of a top-two primary electoral system alter voters' political knowledge, interest in politics and vote choices. The 2016 top-two primary in California provides an opportunity to understand whether voters in California are behaving differently in the primary election or the general election because of their unusual primary election system. The PIs use a panel survey evaluate whether voters are more informed about politics, are getting their information from different sources, are thinking strategically about their primary and general ballots, and in general are likely to vote differently because of the electoral reform. The panel survey matches a set of California voters to a set of national voters at two points in time (immediately after the June primary and then again after the November general election). This strategy allows the PIs to examine to what extent California voters are behaving differently than voters across the nation but will also let us know to what extent their behavior changes between the primary and general election. We are particularly interested in whether the primary election laws cause voters to become more informed about opposite party candidates. Technical Summary There is limited evidence that the top-two primary electoral reform has altered voters' choices and electoral outcomes. This project compares a large scale survey California registered voters to a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Previous surveys have captured snapshots of voter behavior from contested top-two congressional or California legislative races, but until now it has not been possible to evaluate voter behavior where all statewide voters are participating in a contest where a likely outcome is a co-partisan general election contest. Specifically, this project evaluates the effect of the top-two primary on voter behavior and attitudes as related to political knowledge and moderation of vote choice. This project addresses the theoretical relationship between electoral system, political knowledge and vote choice.