Extreme Weather Events and Individual differences in Threat Perception and Behavior

University Of Florida, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

Individuals interpret risk information in different ways: some underestimate risk while others overestimate it--and these preferences for one error or another may depend on identifiable individual differences. In the context of extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes), both of these errors are problematic. Under-preparers put themselves at risk if a disaster strikes, whereas over-preparers may hoard supplies, deplete resources, or evacuate for an unlikely disaster and thus clog evacuation routes. Understanding how individual differences in personality traits (e.g., impulsivity, conscientiousness) and social networks (e.g., friends, family, coworkers) influence people's interpretations of risk may be essential to communicating effective warnings and potentially saving lives. This award will support a series of four studies that examine how various factors such as personality traits, social networks, and available time and resources affect people's risk preferences and decisions about storm preparation and intentions to evacuate. This interdisciplinary research project, which draws on decision science, personality psychology, and social network analysis, will provide an integrative view of how people make key decisions about preparation and evacuation in the face of threatening weather events. This research will also provide advanced training opportunities in network analysis and statistical modeling for junior researchers. After learning about an approaching natural disaster such as a hurricane, people weigh the costs of potential false positive and false negative errors. People may face a false positive error in which they pay the costs to prepare yet the disaster does not occur, or they may face a false negative error in which they do nothing yet risk paying severe costs if the disaster occurs. The costs of both types of decisions can differ radically, from inconvenience to loss of life. Current research on disaster-related decision-making lacks a comprehensive understanding of the individual and social factors that influence how people weigh these potential outcomes. To this end, the research project will take a multi-method approach using (a) psychological methods for assessing personal and environmental influences, (b) egocentric social network analysis for assessing the influences of people's personal network composition and structure. This project addresses three specific questions: (1) Do trait and environmental factors influence people's cognition about natural hazards? (2) Is the influence of these individual differences on hazard-related cognition mediated by the differential weights people assign to false positive or false negative errors? (3) Is seeing a hazard as an opportunity related to engaging in more risky hazard-related behaviors, and does this cognition about a natural hazard change how people behave? The findings are expected to contribute to our understanding of the mechanism by which individual and environmental factors influence people's interpretation of risk as well as their intentions and behaviors. Understanding how people perceive the risk information they receive is key for officials who plan evacuation logistics and decide when to issue warnings.