Doctoral Dissertation Research: Simulating Compositional and Structural Change in a Near Boreal Forest

University Of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis MN

Investigators

Abstract

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION GEOGRAPHY SPATIAL SCIENCES (GSS) PROGRAM ABSTRACT This doctoral dissertation research will investigate the influences of competing factors such as climate conditions, land use, and fire that drive structural and compositional change in the near Boreal forests of the Upper Great Lakes region. The research will provide an improved understanding of the response of vegetation to these impacts in order to promote long-term forest sustainability and resilience. Enhanced forest landscape simulation modeling will provide new insights regarding vegetation and environmental dynamics, and a more holistic understanding of the impacts of disturbances on the ecosystem. Outcomes from this research will provide land resources managers and stakeholders with potential future forest conditions scenarios enabling them to make informed, outcome-based environmental management decisions. Better management efforts will not only protect the ecosystem but also enhance recreational and economic activities in the region. The project includes education and training opportunities for undergraduate students from underrepresented populations to enrich their research experiences. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career. The near boreal forests of the Upper Great Lakes have undergone profound compositional, structural, and functional changes during the century following Euro-American settlement. The historical dominance of red pine in the region is representative of fire's imprint on the landscape, however, 20th century land-use modification has generally excluded fire across the landscape, reducing dominance of resilient species and potentially increasing susceptibility of the regional forests to future environmental change. The research supported by this award will focus on three core questions: (1) Are there an adequate number lightning fires to maintain red pine stands in the Upper Great Lakes region? (2) How would the modern-day landscape composition and structure differ in the absence of 20th century landscape modification? (3) How will environmental changes influence fire regimes and subsequent vegetation patterns in the future? The doctoral student will use the landscape disturbance and succession model, LANDIS-II to simulate forest compositional and structural change. Four scenarios will be simulated, ranging temporally from pre-settlement times to AD 2300, to model forest changes in response to varying fire, climate, and land scenarios.