RAPID: Modeling Zika Control Effectiveness with Feedback in Risk Perception and Associated Demand across Scales of Intervention

University Of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville TN

Investigators

Abstract

Zika virus is an infectious pathogen that is primarily transmitted through mosquitos. The Zika epidemic in the Americas has sparked much confusion and uncertainty, both within the scientific community as well as in the general public. As scientists rapidly identify the best way to reduce mosquito populations and virus transmission, public health professionals will likely need to implement activities to reduce mosquito populations, even before best practice are clearly established and guidelines are officially defined. This may be problematic, because some communities that enact significant mosquito control strategies could have less effective outcomes simply because neighboring communities choose not to invest in mosquito control measures. This project will integrate statistical models in behavior and disease transmission with the goal of understanding how coordinated mosquito interventions must be in order to be effective. These models will not only have near term policy benefits for the Zika epidemic, but will have the potential to help inform the response to similar infectious disease outbreaks in the future. Results from this project will be relevant to the Zika public health emergency, and the researchers have set in place mechanisms to share quality-assured interim and final data as rapidly and widely as possible, including with public health and research communities. In the context of significant uncertainty with Zika virus, it is important for policy makers to understand how much coordination of control efforts are needed for effective protection from Zika virus. In the face of limited coordination, for instance across regional, state, or international boundaries, are there ways to enact independent control efforts to compensate for asynchrony and still achieve effective protection? The investigators will develop three models: A) a simple vector-borne disease dynamic differential equations model, B) a spatially explicit individual based simulation model and C) a feedback control model that builds on the first two. Together, these models will generate answers to policy-relevant questions about coordination of vector control