The Spatial Demography of Population Loss in the United States

Brown University, Providence RI

Investigators

Abstract

This research project will investigate the geography of population loss in the United States. It will generate new knowledge regarding the geographical extent and nature of population decline, including its demographic sources, the characteristics of the individuals exposed to this decline, and information about the demographic change occurring in locations of decline. The project will enhance basic understanding in geography and population studies and will provide new information and insights about connections among population change, geography, and population composition as measured for specific areas as well as the individuals living in those areas. The project will contribute to spatial demographic theory by focusing on the links between declines at various spatial scales and demographic characteristics. Project methods and results will be generalizable to other countries experiencing regional population loss and will be useful for researchers in related fields who require up-to-date understanding of the evolving distribution and composition of the U.S. population. Products from this project will be communicated to scholarly audiences in geography and population studies as well as to policy makers and directly to the public. The project also will contribute to the professional education, training, and development of a post-doctoral researcher. Population loss is longstanding and widespread in the United States and will become more relevant if population growth slows. Population loss affects places and people, although past research has tended to focus mostly on impacted places. This project will highlight the disproportionate exposure to population decline experienced by different demographic groups. The investigator will develop new measures of place-specific population change that incorporate spatial context and temporal scale. The resulting typology of population change will identify various types of declining and growing places according to recent population change, the growth trajectory of neighboring areas, and population change in previous decades. She will identify the demographic sources of population decline (such as fertility, mortality, and migration) associated with each category of population change and investigate variations in migrant characteristics and destinations by decline type. She will evaluate the demographic burden of decline (such as differences in the characteristics of those exposed to population decline), with special focus on the characteristics of those living in areas declining at multiple spatial scales, and she will assess the dynamics of decline in order to discover how age structure, residential segregation, population composition and distribution, and poverty levels change when places lose population.