RAPID: Observations of carbon, water, and vegetation dynamics during and after the 2015/2016 El Nino drought to test models of climate-change induced Amazon forest 'dieback'

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

Abstract

Scientists are concerned that the great forests of the Amazon basin may be vulnerable to climate change. In the worst case, according to the predictions of some numerical models, climate change could cause large reductions in rainfall that could cause the collapse of Amazon forests. Critically needed to allow us to understand whether these models are realistic are observations of forest responses to real-world drought. This RAPID project will measure the amount of carbon dioxide from the air above the forest that is captured by the forest, along with measurements of tree growth and death during and after the unusually strong El Nino event that is now causing drought, high temperatures, and fires across the eastern region of the Amazon along the equator. The project will be carried out in collaboration with many Brazilian scientists and students who are also working at this location. Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide, latent heat and sensible head will be made from the km67 eddy flux tower in the Tapajós forest near the city of Santarém, Brazil. This site has the longest combined eddy flux and forest tree dynamics record in an Amazon forest (starting in 2001). It is an ideal location for this work because it is in one of the most El Nino-sensitive areas of the South American Amazon. Results will provide much needed information about the ecological mechanisms that underlie the forest collapse models that have received so much recent attention.