Multiscale Models for Predicting the Effectiveness of Mitigation Efforts in Controlling Vector-Borne Epidemics

Tulane University, New Orleans LA

Investigators

Abstract

This research project aims to create improved mathematical models for predicting the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. These models can be used to help guide public health workers in improving the effectiveness of intervention strategies for mitigating the impact of these diseases. The project focuses on analyzing approaches that have the potential for optimizing mitigation strategies for controlling chikungunya, dengue fever, and Zika virus. The partial differential equation mosquito-borne disease transmission models under development in this project will account for spatial heterogeneity in the population density of the mosquito and host populations. The research aims to create a new two-sex model that can account for both vertical and horizontal transmission of bacterial control measures, such as using Wolbachia to mitigate the disease spread. The mathematical analysis of these models will include quantifying the uncertainty in the model forecasts for multiple species of mosquitoes.