A Panel Study of the Dynamics of Change in Egypt and Turkey

University Of Maryland, College Park, College Park MD

Investigators

Abstract

People's sociopolitical and cultural views change as a result of their experience. An important component of this experience is the outbreak of major events in their lives. These events may be personal, like getting married or divorce, the birth of one's child or the loss of a loved one, starting a new career or losing a job. Life-changing events may also happen at a broader societal level, including a sudden shift in the economic conditions, a major societal upheaval or revolutionary development, sudden changes in the government through a military coup, or political repression by the government or an act of violence perpetrated by terror groups. Such events may reinforce or challenge cherished beliefs, causing a shift in people's orientation toward either conservatism or liberalism. In the contemporary Middle East, comparative historical studies of ideological production and cross-national values surveys have shown associations between changes in social conditions and changes in the dominant sociopolitical discourses and people?s value orientations It is, however, unclear how changes in these conditions explain changes in discourses and values. In prior research comparative surveys were carried out in Egypt in 2011 and Turkey in 2013, using a nationally representative sample of more than 3,000 adults in each country. This project will re-interview the same respondents in order to assess how changes in their life conditions and the outbreak of events that transpired since the last surveys affected their values and political behavior. This project will contribute to a mechanismic explanation of change in values and political engagement by launching a panel study in Egypt and Turkey, where adequate infrastructure for survey research is available. This panel study will (1) explain changes in sociopolitical and cultural values; (2) examine how variation in participation in such activities as peaceful demonstrations, political protests, and political violence is linked to changes in (a) inter-group relations, (b) identity and framing, (c) attitudes toward the West and liberal values, (d) religious fundamentalism, (e) dysphoric emotions or personal efficacy, and (f) sources of news information (the Internet, satellite TV, mobiles); (3) assess how people's perceptions of corruption and trustworthiness of public officials are linked to political action and conflict; and (4) evaluate the implications of this study for peace and national security. This project will also contribute to survey methodology by (1) including a new Event History Calendar in the questionnaire, and (2) assessing the effects of privacy during the interview and interviewer characteristics on respondents.