NeTS: Small: Modeling IPv6 Adoption: A Measurement-driven Computational Approach

University Of California-San Diego, La Jolla CA

Investigators

Abstract

Broad industry awareness of IPv4 address scarcity has driven widespread support for IPv6 in most modern operating systems and network equipment, but even with years of encouragement from regional address registries (RIRs), and government mandates, the actual uptake of IPv6 has been disappointing. A vast ecosystem of software applications and devices still do not support IPv6, and many technologies designed to support the transition add complexity and reduce performance and reliability. Understandably then, there is a lack of consensus on whether IPv6 will ever be widely adopted by ISPs, leaving the broader Internet ecosystem with tremendous uncertainty and risk in planning for the future. While some companies have avoided IPv6 deployment, others have undertaken valiant efforts to be early adopters of IPv6, risking loss of their investment should the transition ultimately fail. Given these daunting circumstances, even skeptics of the ability to comprehend the dynamics of such a large and complex network as the Internet must consider the utility of measurements to characterize factors affecting (and possibly inhibiting) IPv6 deployment. This project extensively measures and characterizes two phenomena in the current IP addressing ecosystem that may either cause and/or reflect IPv6 deployment decisions: market-based transfers of IPv4 address blocks and deployment of Carrier Grade NATs (CGNs). This research analyzes the set of transfers reported to the RIRs to characterize the evolution of this market, and whether transfers may be inhibiting IPv6 adoption by promoting hoarding behavior. Address transfers could also be happening without the approval of the RIRs. This project develops novel methods using BGP and DNS data and active measurements collected from CAIDA's Archipelago infrastructure to detect grey market transfers, and active and passive measurement methods to detect the presence and evolution of Carrier-Grade NAT deployments in ISP networks. The project also investigates potential performance impairments and application breakage that may occur due to CGNs. The resulting data and analysis provides much needed insights to network operators, governments, and Internet policy makers about the future of the global Internet. Results of this project will be disseminated via publications at conferences and journals. All data and tools resulting from this project will be released to the research and operational community, and accessible educational materials will be provided in the form of slidesets, animations and videos.