SES RUI: Assessing the Effect of Systems Thinking on Decision Making

Oberlin College, Oberlin OH

Investigators

Abstract

The greatest challenges humans currently face - climate change, poverty, epidemics, financial meltdowns - are the result of humans acting within enormously complex systems without the ability to fully understanding how these systems work. Many have argued that people will make better decisions under these circumstances if they can engage in systems thinking. Systems thinking is a way of conceptualizing reality and making decisions that emphasizes enhanced understanding of relationships and interdependencies. This research identifies simple and scalable methods of increasing systems thinking and enhancing everyday decision making that do not require extensive training or cognitive resources. In particular, this research examines whether metaphors and conceptual models that encourage people to think about the broader system can shift the way people think about a problem, and improve their ability to identify effective solutions. For example, do diagrams and maps that help people to situate themselves and visualize their relationships to ecological, social or economic systems help them make choices that benefit the community around them? Do some metaphors (describing a national park as the "backbone" of the park system, as opposed to a "pearl") help people see the relationships between that park and the larger ecological system? The most important facet of this research from a practical point of view is the possibility that relatively simple metaphors and conceptual models have the potential to improve decision making among large groups of people every day. In eight studies, this research project identifies metaphors and conceptual models that promote systems thinking, and test the contention that systems thinking improves decision making. Two experiments identify systemic metaphors and test their psychological effects, as well as their effects on risk assessment and decision making. Two experiments test whether valuing the system in question is a prerequisite for systems thinking to result in better decision making. Four field studies will test the impact of systemic metaphors on conservation behavior (electricity use) and political action (involvement in social media-based campaigns orchestrated by the non-profit communications firm Resource Media). These studies are important because none of the existing work on systems thinking is grounded in psychological processes, nor has it fully evaluated the effects of systems thinking on decision making and behavior. The research program proposed here will use psychological theory, empirical measurement, and experimental techniques to address these large gaps in knowledge.