OCE-PRF Track 1 (Broadening Participation): The influence of predator-prey interactions on climate-induced range shifts in marine communities

Selden, Rebecca, Santa Barbara CA

Investigators

Abstract

Trawl surveys conducted over the last 40 years have provided evidence that warming ocean temperatures have driven widespread shifts in the distribution of marine species in the coastal United States, with some species shifting north by more than 200 km. However, not all species have responded at the same rate to these changes in ocean temperatures. As a result, warming could alter key species interactions (such as competition or predation) that could mediate the capacity for these populations to respond to future climate change as well as impact the goods and services provided to humans by these ecosystems, including commercial and recreational fisheries. In this research project, the fellow will examine the influence of predator-prey interactions on regional species shifts related to changes in ocean temperatures. In addition, the fellow will use the results of the research to develop educational materials and an interactive app for the Rutgers Summer Science Program. The activities the fellow will develop for the program have the potential to contribute directly to broadening the participation of under-represented groups in ocean sciences. Most current models predicting range shifts in response to climate change consider each species in isolation. However, predator-prey interactions have the potential to modify the capacity for species to respond to changes in climate. Indeed, invasions by exotic species have been found to be more rapid where populations are released from natural enemies (e.g. ?enemy release?) and are slowed by the presence of predators that resist their establishment (e.g. ?biotic resistance?). This research will demonstrate the degree to which these key concepts from invasion biology apply to climate-induced range shifts and need to be considered when projecting future range shifts. The fellow will utilize a 45-year dataset on predator and prey distributions and ocean temperatures on the U.S. Northeast Shelf. The role of enemy release and biotic resistance will be tested by examining the effect of predator abundance and predator-prey spatial overlap on the rate at which prey populations respond to shifting climates. Fisheries will be considered as human predators. In addition, the fellow will test the direct effect of warming on the overlap between predator and prey. Using these relationships from historical data, range shifts will be projected for future climate scenarios, with and without changes in predator abundance that might result due to fishing. Improving our predictions of range shifts will be critical to forecasting how marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fisheries will be affected by climate change.