DMUU: Climate and Energy Decision Making

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA

Investigators

Abstract

This collaborative research group will develop tools to help decision makers address energy and other environmentally related decision problems; develop and demonstrate new theory and interdisciplinary methods; and conduct highly interdisciplinary research that merges behavioral and decision science with engineering and other technical analysis. To mitigate the negative consequences of environmental change, such as extreme events, the energy system will have to be fundamentally transformed from its current carbon-intensive form. The research will address challenges and potential solutions for a cost-effective transition of the energy system and the likely consequences of different pathways for the future of that system. This collaborative group is based at Carnegie Mellon University and includes researchers from eleven other institutions. The collaborative group will (1) publish results in leading scientific and engineering journals; (2) brief and otherwise assist a wide range of energy and environmentally-related decision makers; and (3) educate interdisciplinary PhD students. In addition, the investigators will use the final year of the project to prepare a book that summarizes results that have been obtained by this collaborative group. A first part of the proposed work will explore public understanding of air pollution and greenhouse gases. It also will explore public understanding of what is involved in making the transition to a future energy system composed of a broad portfolio of technologies and strategies. Research on public understanding and the development of strategies to improve fact-based communication will build upon "mental model" methods. A second part of the proposed work will involve the assessment of technologies and strategies that could: (1) facilitate or impede the transition of the energy system; (2) develop more sources of energy that are safe, clean, affordable, and secure; (3) increase the security and efficiency of the energy system; and (4) facilitate innovation in both technology and in organizations, regulation, and public policy. Strategies pursued in the short term in the name of transforming the energy system could be detrimental to longer-term progress (for example, shutting down clean nuclear power plants because, at the moment, natural gas is inexpensive, or developing an overreliance on natural gas). Activities undertaken in the third part of the proposed work will identify such potential problems and explore strategies to minimize the chances of getting stuck in future situations that block continued progress. Analysis of technical and regulatory issues associated with facilitating a more efficient and cost-effective transformation of the energy system will build upon a range of tools in engineering-economic and policy assessment. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.