Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant: Simulating Interactions Among Environment, Population Dynamics And Behavioral Response

University Of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia MO

Investigators

Abstract

Amy Warren, under the guidance of Dr. Lisa Sattenspiel, will investigate the complex interactions between human populations and their environments to gain greater insight into the effects of resource stress and human adaptive behaviors on the structure of prehistoric human populations. A key adaptive strategy in response to resource stress throughout human history has been population movement at various scales. Prior research on population movements typically focused on large-scale abandonments in response to sudden, dramatic climatic shifts. This study instead focuses on changing climatic conditions, population dynamics, and population movements over a long span of time. The results of this research can be extrapolated to make generalized statements about human adaptations to climate and resource stress and, because these issues remain important considerations in the modern world, can potentially inform efforts to understand and mitigate subsistence stress among contemporary small-scale farming groups. In addition, sharing the methods, data, and results of this project with other researchers permits further investigation of questions of long-standing importance in archaeology. This project also incorporates activities that allow interested members of the public and even young students to perform their own experiments related to human-environment interactions. Detailed environmental, demographic, and ethnographic data culled from years of archaeological and anthropological investigations in the American Southwest will be used in conjunction with agent-based computer simulation models to investigate these issues. The computer models developed in this project allow for realistic experimentation with various factors that contribute to prehistoric population dynamics. Fine-grained environmental data and research on the agricultural productivity of specific soil types under specific climatic conditions allows researchers to estimate annual agricultural productivity in two neighboring areas in the Four Corners region of the American Southwest, Long House Valley and Black Mesa during the study period (AD 800 to AD 1350). Incorporating this data into the models provides a realistic landscape on which the simulated populations can carry out essential activities. Using empirically derived estimates for fertility and mortality, one can simulate patterns of population growth and decline and collect data regarding possible structures of the prehistoric populations. This provides a means to generate prehistoric demographic data that cannot be produced using traditional bioarchaeological approaches. Several theoretical models, developed through ethnographic and archaeological research, provide basic information about the magnitude and duration of various population movement strategies in response to resource stress. Incorporating these theoretical models with the computer simulations allows for in-depth exploration of the nature of population movements between the two study areas and the effects of these movements on the structure of populations in the study areas. Implementation of these models permits not only a more nuanced understanding of some of the factors involved in changing population dynamics in the region but also allows for consideration of additional factors such as conflict and violence, disease, and sociopolitical complexity and their effects on prehistoric human groups.