Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Kids in Adult Jails: The Short, Medium and Long Run Impacts of Prosecuting Juveniles as Adults

University Of California-Berkeley, Berkeley CA

Investigators

Abstract

The age at which an adolescent is viewed as an adult in the eyes of the criminal justice system varies widely both across and within different states. If tried as an adult, the adolescent faces dramatically different consequences: higher probabilities of incarceration, longer sentences, less rehabilitative programming, an adult criminal record, and increased exposure to adult criminals. The PI proposes to estimate the causal impact of prosecuting an adolescent as an adult, using an instrumental variables research design. Using data from the state of Florida the PI will study crime, high school graduation, post-secondary education, wages, and unemployment. A variety of theories offer competing predictions as to how these two justice systems affect future outcomes. On the one hand, the `specific deterrence' theory predicts that the greater unpleasantness of adult incarceration will deter the youth from future crime simply by increasing his expected cost of re-incarceration. On the other hand, theories of peer influence predict that exposure to older, more criminally experienced peers will increase the likelihood of crime after release due to either criminal skill transfer, persistent network formation, or social contagion of attitudes and preferences. Theories which view crime and legal employment as substitutes would also expect worse outcomes from adult prosecution due to the decreased access to education and vocational training as well the burdens of an adult criminal record. Finally, those that emphasize the role that noncognitive traits have in crime would predict that the rehabilitative programming available in juvenile facilities would be beneficial for future outcomes. While all of these theories offer plausible arguments, empirical research is necessary to determine which effect dominates in practice. Previous research examining this question has largely used matched comparisons; while they find detrimental effects of adult incarceration, it is unclear whether the research strategies have been successful in eliminating all selection bias. This work will contribute to the literature by estimating the causal impact of prosecuting an adolescent as an adult, using a research design in which selection bias is not a concern. There are currently more than 7 million Americans under correctional supervision, with minorities disproportionately represented. While adult incarceration is expensive, juvenile incarceration is even more so, averaging $80,000 per person per year. At the same time, research in psychology and neurosciences suggests that adolescents are still very much in a formative stage, implying that improvements to correctional policies which affect teenagers may have wide reaching benefit.