Mechanisms of Intensity Change in Sheared Tropical Cyclones

Suny At Albany, Albany NY

Investigators

Abstract

The project will use NOAA/HRD-derived aircraft data, including dual-Doppler winds and reflectivity, plus numerous additional sources of data, to evaluate existing theories of vertical wind shear effects on tropical cyclones. The focus will be on the "low-level pathway" in which low equivalent potential temperature air produced by downdrafts into the boundary layer reaches the eyewall and reduces storm intensity. Case studies will be conducted for varying intensity changes in the presence of moderate to large vertical wind shear. The goal is to understand every aspect of the low-level pathway, including the roles of cold downdrafts, boundary layer recovery, and stratiform and convective precipitation. Intellectual Merit: The questions that are addressed here are fundamental to predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. The understanding of key processes in tropical cyclone intensity change constitutes a direly needed scientific endeavor, which would lead to improvement of hurricane forecasting. Broader Impacts: These include the education of graduate students and the use of an outstanding database collected by HRD/NOAA. These valuable taxpayer-funded data have not been fully utilized. The graduate student education includes guidance with the writing of theses and papers and development of presentation skills. Additional educational experience for graduate students and postdocs is produced by co-sponsoring the Northeast Tropical Conference every two years. Work is disseminated through articles in top professional journals and via numerous presentations.