Role of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Determining the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over Sub-Saharan Northern Africa

University Of Texas At Austin, Austin TX

Investigators

Abstract

Abstract This research seeks to improve our understanding of the relationship between Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and the diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall over sub-Saharan Northern Africa. The study specifically addresses the observed warm season spatial and temporal distribution of MCSs; as well as how the development, propagation and lifetimes of these systems are influenced by local and regional environmental factors. This study combines observational analysis with high-resolution mesoscale modeling to advance our understanding of the development of warm season MCSs and their relationship to the daily cycle of precipitation. Intellectual Merit This study will add to our understanding of rainfall variability, physical mechanisms and the processes associated with these temporal and spatial differences. The statistics and other metrics that will be developed will have the potential to impact present and/or future development of weather model parameterization schemes. The results will be of importance to rainfall forecasting, which will have implication for communities in the region. The use of convective-permitting high space-time resolution weather model simulations, with typical parameterization schemes turned off, will allow the explicit calculation of the dynamics needed to generate convection. Broader Impacts Improving empirical and theoretical knowledge of the factors controlling precipitation in sub-Saharan North Africa will allow those living in the area to better anticipate and prepare for periods of both drought and extreme rainfall events. Efforts to accurately reproduce observations with high-resolution weather models will provide guidance on the most appropriate model settings for short-term predictions of the development of large thunderstorm clusters and rainfall in this specific region of the globe. This project is ideally suited to train graduate students in state-of-the-art observational analysis and atmospheric modeling techniques. Student participation in research activities will assist in the development of important critical thinking and scientific communication skills. This study offers the opportunity to teach many scientists about the important factors controlling rainfall in this region of Africa.