RAPID: Collaborative: The Legitimacy of Negotiated Peace: Social Preferences, Victimhood, and the Peace Process.

University Of Mississippi, University MS

Investigators

Abstract

General Summary This project examines how basic pro-social orientations and victimhood influence the public's support for potential outcomes of the ongoing peace negotiations. Peace negotiators must agree on issues such as jail time, the truth, demobilization, reparations, and socio-political re-integration. Public opinion towards such outcomes is crucial since any eventual peace deal must ultimately be ratified by the electorate. We measure pro-social orientations by observing individuals' levels of (1) altruism, (2) trust, (3) reciprocity, (4) willingness to uphold fairness norms even at some personal cost. We conceive of the nature of victimhood in terms of who the perpetrator was and how recently and directly one has been victimized. Pro-sociality and victimhood (and their interplay) should help understand public opinion formation towards the negotiated peace outcomes. Using negotiations between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) guerrillas as the case of interest, results of the study will hold lessons for political leaders and policymakers who are tasked with both reaching a peace agreement and, subsequently, designing post-conflict institutions to sustain peace and foster social cohesion. Technical Summary To study how social preferences and the nature of victimhood influence public opinion formation surrounding aspects of negotiated peace, we embed game-theoretic behavioral measures of social preferences in a large online survey administered by a professional survey firm. Altruism is measured via dictator games. Trust and reciprocity are measured in the context of a trust game. Costly punishment, i.e. strong negative reciprocity, is gauged using a Third-Party Punishment game. Subjects are randomly assigned to one role in each of these games. Afterwards, they respond to question batteries tapping (1) preferences for potential outcomes of the Colombian government-FARC peace talks and (2) nature of victimhood. The order of these two batteries will be randomized to permit a partial test of the exogeneity of social preferences to victimhood. To explore this and other questions related to victimhood and opinion formation towards the peace process more deeply, we will conduct 4 focus groups with victims groups in Bogotá and in the conflict zone. The project explores how pro-sociality influence the politics of conflict resolution in contemporary polities. At the same time, it will test the proposition that the effect of social preferences on policy preferences towards peace and justice cannot be divorced from the degree and nature victimhood in post-conflict societies.