A Joint Mathematical and Experimental Study on Cholera Transmission Dynamics

Old Dominion University Research Foundation, Norfolk VA

Investigators

Abstract

Cholera is a severe intestinal infectious disease that remains a serious public health threat in developing countries, especially in Africa and in the Indian subcontinent. This project aims to establish a new mathematical and experimental framework to model, analyze, validate, and simulate cholera transmission dynamics. Incorporating bacterial growth, seasonal variation, and spatial heterogeneity, the framework overcomes the limitations in current cholera epidemic models. Toward this goal, new mathematical models based on differential equations will be introduced, innovative laboratory experiments will be conducted, optimal control study will be carried out, and large-scale high-performance numerical computation will be performed. The project represents an interdisciplinary collaboration between applied mathematics and microbial ecology, integrating mathematical analysis, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulation. The research will improve our understanding of the fundamental dynamics of cholera, which involve multiple transmission routes and complex interaction among human and ecological hosts, bacteria and viruses, and exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations under global climatic and environmental changes. Worldwide cholera outbreaks and their increasing severity, frequency and duration in recent years underscore the gap between the complex mechanism of cholera transmission and our current quantitative understanding of the disease and strategies for its control. The success of this project will not only build a solid knowledge base for understanding cholera dynamics, but also provide important guidelines for public health administration. Meanwhile, education and training activities of this project will involve graduate and undergraduate students in the theory, methods and application of mathematical epidemiology and disease ecology. Outreach activities will focus on demonstrating exponential growth and teaching exponentiation in both educational and community settings. Project results will be widely disseminated to academic and public health communities.