Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: A Field Experiment on the Externalities of Protest

University Of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh PA

Investigators

Abstract

How can protests mobilize civil society? Activists and scholars alike assume that protests can inspire and mobilize non-participants, but psychological research would argue that protests are counterproductive to political participation. This project argues that the consequences of protest activity vary along a continuum of perceived conflict; the more conflict individuals perceive in the protest, the more likely they are to become less interested in politics and less willing to participate. The theory is tested through a novel field experiment, in which real protests in Mexico City serve as the treatment. For the experiment, levels of political participation and political attitudes among a random sample of local respondents are evaluated before and after exposure to protest activity. The research will evaluate how exposure to protest activity ultimately achieves a polarizing effect, such that individuals either mobilize or demobilize significantly depending on their perception of political conflict. Intellectual Merit: This project makes important theoretical and methodological contributions to the field's understanding of protests and mobilization. Theoretically, this project explores a new and potentially fruitful range of consequences for protest activity. It is possible that protesters who lose legislative battles win their own battles in the streets, and it is also possible that protesters who win their battles with legislators simultaneously lose among the electorate. Indeed, if protests change politics in more meaningful ways than simply winning and losing legislation, then those possible outcomes are worth considering. Moreover, to test this theory, the project uses a fundamentally new and innovative methodological approach that captures individual responses to protest activity at the ground level, measuring change as it occurs in real time. Protests, particularly their consequences, are notoriously difficult to study empirically. The data recorded in this experiment, and the design of the experiment itself, will be useful for any student of protests or mobilization who has been previously forced to rely on purely quantitative approaches, such as protest event analysis, or purely qualitative case studies. Broader Impacts: There are three major impacts of this project, the first of which relates directly to U.S. national security. Policymakers have long wondered about the social and political consequences of protest activity, but the diverse outcomes of the Arab Spring have pressed this topic with more urgency. Indeed, civil society's response to these movements has been unwieldy and, at times, unpredictably divisive and violent. For example, the first cases of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Egypt were greeted with open arms as if mobilization would inevitably result in sweeping democratic practices. It later became clear civil society would not always respond this way, and many protests fizzled away without traction while others fostered hotbeds of violent polarization. This project will provide a framework from which to predict and explain which protest contexts are most likely to result in democratization, demobilization, or extreme polarization so that it will not be necessary to construct ad hoc foreign policy responses to subsequent waves of protest. Second, this project is notably beneficial to grassroots organizers and social movement organizations seeking to improve their purchase among civil society. Moreover, the project provides specific suggestions in terms of protest techniques and strategies that may yield positive and or negative externalities. Finally, this project will serve to build partnerships between the University of Pittsburgh and the "Caught in the Act" project, a network of European and Latin American scholars working to systematize protest research. The partnership will connect scholars from a variety of countries, and it will allow for the training of undergraduate students in survey work and experimental methods.