WSC-Category 3 Collaborative: Designing Robust and Adaptive Water Management Strategies in Regions Transitioning from Abundance to Scarcity

University Of North Carolina At Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC

Investigators

Abstract

The Southeastern US faces a transition from water abundance to water scarcity due to population growth, economic expansion, and limits on new water supply development. Yet, the Southeast is not prepared for this transition because existing management systems are poorly suited for coping scarcity. Climate change will likely exacerbate this situation, especially if its effects are amplified by urbanization and changing land use. Consequently, Southeast communities must consider a wider range of supply and demand management alternatives. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for how potential solutions can be effectively coordinated. A portfolio approach to integrating a diverse array of water supply assets and demand management measures offers considerable promise, but this approach must consider not only the technical and economic realities of water management, but also the behavior of decision makers. Given that water-related investments have substantial environmental and social implications, improving their effectiveness in the face of growth and climatic uncertainty is a critically important task. This project will be the first to comprehensively assess and improve methods by which decision makers can design strategies to reconcile their multiple, and often conflicting, objectives (e.g. more conservation vs. lower utility revenues). A simulation-based framework will be used to design adaptive regional portfolios with broad relevance to regions in transition. This framework will combine physical models that analyze how climate change and land use trends impact hydrology with engineering, financial, and behavioral models. This work will also involve close interactions with decision makers, including assessments of their attitudes toward supply and financial risk, how these attitudes impact choices, and tools for mitigating risk. Additionally, the proposed research will contribute a computational platform that can serve as a template for adaptive water management, exposing regional tradeoffs, interdependencies and vulnerabilities. This project will leverage existing relationships with utilities and local governments to develop constructive learning feedbacks between the research team and decision makers, an element that will lead to strategies that are both practical and theoretically sound.