Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Causes and Representative Consequences of Invalid Voting

Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN

Investigators

Abstract

The project investigates the causes of invalid voting, an important issue for democratic development. In recent elections in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, more than one out of every five voters went to the polls, received a ballot, but did not vote for a congressional candidate. To varying degrees around the world, citizens turn out to vote and then choose not to exercise their most basic democratic right, instead casting blank or incorrectly marked ballots. Yet, despite the frequency of this phenomenon, little is known about who casts these "null" or "invalid" votes, and why. This project assesses potential causes of intentional invalid voting across the Latin American region and, also, examines politician responsiveness to this practice using a mixed methods approach. First, using cross-national survey data of citizens collected by the AmericasBarometer and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, the project assesses individual-level explanations of invalid voting behavior. Specifically, support is found for the proposed relationships between low political knowledge, dissatisfaction with politics, and invalid voting. A second series of analyses incorporates an original dataset to address questions of elite strategy in response to invalid voting. In particular, this analysis tests the hypothesis that, in strategizing about future party competition, parties view high rates of invalid voting as a sign of electoral opportunity, and therefore choose to enter competition where rates of invalid voting are high. The third set of analyses involves the collection of original interview data with sitting politicians, political candidates, and partisan strategists in Peru. This part of the project assesses the interaction between elites and citizens, through the analysis of semi-structured interviews with candidates and sitting legislators from subnational regions with varied historical rates of invalid voting: Arequipa, Cajamarca, and Piura. To understand the implications of invalid voting for political representation, the project will determine whether and to what extent political elites are concerned about invalid voting, and, given this concern, whether and how elites respond to invalid voters both on the campaign trail and once in office. Intellectual Merit: While previous scholarship has identified some potential causes of intentional invalid voting, scholars to date have not isolated intentional null voting in their arguments or in their empirical tests, which have been conducted in large part at the aggregate level. Academically, this project's contribution is twofold: First, it offers a comprehensive theoretical framework focused on intentional invalid voting, and tests the related theoretical propositions at the individual level using cross-national and single-case survey and interview data. Second, the project extends beyond the causes of invalid voting to build and test a new theory of elite response. Measuring how political elites evaluate and respond to often-sizeable groups of null voters, both during the electoral period and once in office, provides a new dimension on which to assess elites' responsiveness to their constituents, and to the broader public. Broader Impacts: This project focuses on the Latin American region, where democratic recessions have become increasingly common in recent years. High rates of intentional invalid voting could suggest widespread citizen discontent in the democracies of this region. U.S. foreign policy has long made democracy-promotion an explicit goal, with the objective of creating a more secure world. This project advances the same goals by gauging the extent to which dissatisfaction motivates invalid voting, and to what political effect. Additionally, this study will take place in affiliation with a local research organization (IEP), using local university students as research assistants. Research assistants will learn specific skills and participate in academic research. Results will be disseminated to the broader academic community through conference presentations and paper publications; results will also be disseminated to the IEP and to Peru's electoral authorities. This project thus develops local human capital, and strengthens cross-national ties with local institutions focused on political research and policy-making.