Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Ethnic Distance and Voter Behavior in Post-Conflict African Democracies

New York University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

This award satisfies Division B, Title V, Sec. 543 of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act of 2013 (P.L. 113-6, enacted on March 26, 2013). The project investigates how ethnicity is related to voting in post-conflict societies, a critical issue in developing political stability, promoting democratization, and advancing US foreign policy efforts. It is generally understood that voters prefer to support candidates who come from their same racial, ethnic, religious, or regional group. This is a particularly important finding in Africa, where countries are ethnically diverse, democracy is new and weak, and voters lack access to important information about candidates, parties, and democracy. This study will open a new research agenda in ethnic politics: the study of ethnic distance. Numerous studies have found that voters in Africa are most likely to vote for candidates from their own ethnic group, their "co-ethnics". However, these studies fail to explain how ethnicity influences the voting behavior of those who do not have a co-ethnic candidate in the race. By some estimates, on average, 40% of the African population will face presidential elections in which they do not have a co-ethnic candidate for whom to vote. Thus, because of the focus on co-ethnicity, our understanding of how ethnicity influences the political behavior of this 40% is extremely limited. This project seeks to explain the role of ethnicity in determining the voting preferences of those without a co-ethnic candidate. Intellectual Merit: The project introduces the concept of "ethnic proximity", and measures it through a survey conducted in Liberia. It investigates the possibility that ethnic similarity is a more robust predictor of voter behavior. This is important because it implies that multiethnic coalitions, which are widely believed to benefit democracy (because they reduce civil conflict), are most likely to form and be sustained in societies with sufficiently similar ethnic groups. Diversity may not be the key factor that prohibits building multiethnic coalitions, but it could be the degree of difference among the various ethnic groups that is of greatest consequence. Broader Impacts: If ethnic distance matters for coalition building, and ethnic identities are changeable, then it can also be used in US nation-building efforts. While Liberia is important for US security interests in its own right, as strengthening democracy in Liberia will likely bring greater stability to the region, understanding how ethnicity promotes or hinders the formation of multi-ethnic political coalitions in Liberia can provide a basis to understand how it would work in other areas of the world. The United States has invested substantial amounts of money in Liberia's post-civil war reconstruction over the past 10 years. This study's results could provide insight into the effective use of resources: while money spent developing infrastructure and democratic institutions is necessary, devoting some resources to reconciliation, in the form of public campaigns to highlight ethnic similarities across groups in an unbiased manner rather than blanketed national identity appeals, may enhance the functioning of democratic institutions. More broadly, the US and its allies have struggled to address the ethnic divisions that plague countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. These ethnic rivalries have often proven spoilers in efforts to promote democracy in these nations. The findings of this study will be instructive for those critical cases as well.