Environmental Causes Of Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure Change

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

Abstract

This project aims to improve basic understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with size and structure changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) due to interaction with its environment. Through a two-tiered approach using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the fundamental physical mechanisms associated with TC size and structure change (expansion/contraction) will be investigated. Improved understanding of the physical processes associated with TC size/structure change is essential to better predict their future impacts. Intellectual Merit : This project will improve understanding of fundamental processes in the environment that produce TC size and structure change. TC size and outer wind structure determine the total area of landfall impact through radius of damaging winds, storm surge, and extent of rainfall. A better understanding of how TC size and outer wind strength is modified by the environment will result in better anticipation of these downstream impacts and, ultimately, better evacuation planning. These gains in knowledge will be achieved through a combined observational and numerical simulation study. The relationships between size/structure change and a number of environmental parameters will be explored using reanalysis data. Then, through examination of a series of initial-value and time varying, full-physics simulations utilizing a very fine mesh and explicit moist physics, the basic physical mechanisms that govern size and structure change from environmental forcing will be established. Broader Impacts : There are several areas of broader impact that will be addressed in the course of the work. The University of Arizona (UA) is committed institutionally to the research-based education of the next generation of scientists. Towards that end, this project will support early career development of a Postdoctoral Scholar and the education of a graduate student in a STEM discipline. The PI has a strong record of graduate and undergraduate student support and a demonstrated history of fostering graduate research, especially for women and other underrepresented groups. We also target elementary school education via a program called "Adopt-A-School" (AAS). The vision of AAS is to partner a single elementary school with a group of UA personnel to create a close, long-term relationship designed to strengthen STEM education at the elementary level with disadvantaged communities. Hollinger Elementary is a bilingual Title 1 school with a population that is over 90% Hispanic. This school year we have over 15 mentors working in 16 classrooms at all grade levels. Our goal is to provide role models and broaden the vision of these children so that they too dream of going to College. Graduate students working with the PI are mentors in these classrooms and the results gained during the course of this research are communicated to these children as part of enabling and enhancing the STEM education. Weather in general and TCs in particular, provide a source of information for STEM learning that excites the children. Finally, this award has the potential to significantly impact society as a whole. Forecasting of TC activity in general, and structure change specifically, is a problem that affects everyday people globally. Improvement of the understanding of large-scale patterns associated with significant structure change that contribute to forecasting ability is of great importance to our science. The ability to adequately forecast size and structure change, which impacts evacuation planning, wave setup and storm surge, has the potential to improve evacuation planning and disaster remediation. This project truly has the potential to have an impact far beyond the scientific community.