CAREER:The emergence of novel regeneration niches- Forecasting tree species recruitment dynamics in a time of change

Regents Of The University Of Michigan - Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor MI

Investigators

Abstract

Forests are the natural vegetation of about half of the U.S., and an important, current goal in ecology is to understand how changes in climate affect the structure and composition of forests. This project will approach this goal by focusing on a critical aspect of forest dynamics -- the recruitment of new trees into the forest as seedlings. To make the research most relevant to current conditions, the project will consider not just effects of climate, but how these may interact with effects from the fragmentation of forests and from the presence of introduced, invasive species. Research will combine field-based, observational, and experimental work with statistical analyses and modeling of the recruitment dynamics of several dominant tree species in the temperate deciduous forests of eastern North America, using sites from northern to southern Michigan. The results will lay a foundation for forecasting the future structure and composition of these forests. Forests are a major natural resource for the nation. To manage them sustainably, policy makers and land users need to be able to plan for the likely complicating effects of climate change. The results from this project will give managers information about the potential of important forest trees to maintain stable populations under a range of management regimes. The project also includes an educational component. Methods and outcomes of the research will be disseminated in educational materials for university and K-12 students to foster scientific literacy about scientific models that describe and predict the impacts of climate change on forests.