RAPID: Natural Disasters and Risk, Time, and Trust Preferences

Michigan State University, East Lansing MI

Investigators

Abstract

This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) Grant will enable researchers to begin investigating whether life coping strategies change in the aftermath of a significant natural disaster such as the category five tornado in Moore, Oklahoma. On May 20, 2013 a category five tornado struck the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore. The tornado, more than a mile wide, resulted in massive damage and 24 fatalities. This research will investigate whether a natural disaster such as this alters a person's propensity to; 1) think and plan for the future or 2) accept more or less risk or 3) trust government and neighbors more or less. Knowledge about what happens to risk, time and trust preferences after a disaster is important since these preferences can directly affect individual and government post-disaster decisions about investing in rebuilding, recovery and future disaster preparation. We will use surveys that incorporate time and risk preference experiments as well as standardized trust questions to get data from individuals directly affected by this disaster as well as individuals outside the affected areas. Specifically, we will survey three populations; 1) individuals impacted directly (i.e., loss of life, injury or property damage) by the 2013 tornado event, 2) individuals from the surrounding community who experienced the event, but were not directly impacted, and 3) individuals residing in a similar (demographically) community in the Oklahoma City metro area, but which has not experienced a significant tornado event recently. Comparing the responses of these three different samples should allow us to identify any significant changes in individuals' views on risk, time or trust. In addition, there will be a second survey completed approximately 9 months later to see if any impacts on risk, time or trust preferences are short-term only or if they seem persistent. This information is potentially very important in understanding and helping to guide both individuals' and governments' willingness to invest in private and public rebuilding and recovery efforts. For example, if a disaster causes victims to put less importance on the future and focus on the here and now right after disasters, it may be prudent to counsel victims to hold off making major reinvestment decisions in order to protect their long-run welfare. The research may also help understand which types of individuals are most susceptible to post-disaster life-skill shifts, so that such counseling can be targeted towards those most at risk. Finally, the findings from this grant can be integrated into a broader disaster research program designed to identify government-level changes in emergency preparedness and infrastructure investments that can reduce tornado fatalities.