Collaborative Research: Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting

University Of California-Berkeley, Berkeley CA

Investigators

Abstract

This grant is for partial support of a project selected and funded under the 2012 NASA-NSF partnership for Space Weather Modeling Collaborations. It is a collaborative effort, led by George Mason University and with participation also from University of Maryland and University of California-Berkeley and with further collaboration also with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The objective is to bring together multiple mature physics-based modules to develop an improved integrated real-time modeling system for heliospheric space weather research and forecasting. It builds on an existing capability that combines a numerical MHD model for the heliosphere, an empirical model for the background solar wind, and a semi-analytic model for the near-Sun disturbances. Ignoring the specifics of a magnetic eruption process at the Sun, this practical approach uses observations of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) to determine its geometric and kinematic representation and launches a corresponding hydrodynamic cloud into the heliospheric computational domain, where it evolves as it interacts with the background solar wind. Improvements to the existing model suite include simulation of the evolving background solar wind, launching more realistic geometric shapes of CMEs into the model, enabling ensemble forecasting, and performing on-the-fly evaluation of the simulated scenarios. In addition, new modules will be included to model outstanding phenomena and effects. The most critical of these are: the prediction of solar energetic particles (SEPs) events caused by solar flares (impulsive events) and interplanetary shocks (gradual events) at planets and spacecraft, and the prediction of southward interplanetary magnetic field events at Earth. Finally, the project will develop additional model outputs, such as synthetic imaging for direct comparison with remote observations, and will enhance the flexibility of the system to allow for the inclusion of model components and initializations developed by others. When completed, the enhanced and improved heliospheric model suite will be delivered to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for access by the scientific community and eventual transition to use for operational space weather forecasting. The results of this effort will help provide accurate predictions for the arrival of CME and SEP events at Earth and other locations in the solar system, which is a high priority national space weather need. Educational components of the project include the participation of postdocs and graduate students.