A workshop to assess and advance the prediction of land-surface response to climate and land-use changes

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

Abstract

This work centers on a three-day workshop to assess the state of knowledge in understanding and predicting land-surface responses to climate and land-use changes. The activity responds directly to major themes in a 2010 NRC report (Landscapes on the Edge), as well as calls for action among participants at a well-attended AGU townhall meeting in 2011. The geomorphic community has developed conceptual and mathematical models for how Earth?s surface will respond to and feed back on changes in climate and land use. However, the current state of knowledge in predicting land-surface response to climate and land-use changes has not been synthesized and documented in one place. The workshop will involve web-based community engagement during its preparatory stages, and bring 20-25 participants to Biosphere 2 near Tucson, AZ, in May, 2013 to synthesize the community input and produce a journal paper on the state of the science plus a separate white paper on strategies for filling knowledge gaps. Two goals of the workshop are to (1) assess and summarize the state of knowledge in predicting land-surface response to climate and land-use changes, and (2) devise a strategy for filling knowledge gaps that leverages the talent and resources of the community of land surface scientists. Through this baseline assessment, the meeting aims to lay the foundations for planning a follow-on meeting co-designed by geomorphologists, hydrologists, soil scientists, ecologists, atmospheric scientists, and others to synthesize knowledge and discuss how predictive models can incorporate knowledge from all relevant disciplines.