An Integrated Simulation Framework to Explore Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Slum Formation

George Mason University, Fairfax VA

Investigators

Abstract

This project is about developing a model of slum (also known as informal or squatter settlements) formation in rapidly growing cities around the world. More than 900 million people, or a third of the world's urban population, live in slums today, the majority of them in the developing world. This phenomenon has implications for health, security, trafficking, environmental, and other issues of global concern. Slums have been the target of many policy actions, but despite these, conditions within slums have not improved much. Many of the policies aimed at improving housing conditions are often not based on an empirical understanding of slums. It is thus important to investigate these empirical questions. (1) How do slums form and expand? (2) Where and when are they formed? and (3) What types of structural changes and/or policy interventions could improve housing conditions for urban poor? This project will develop a modeling framework that is an integration of Discrete-Event Simulation (DES), Agent-based Modeling (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS). This novel simulation framework will help explain and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of slum formation in cities. The model will allow policymakers and planners to analyze the impacts of their policy actions on the slums before implementing the actual policies. A successful model could lead to effective policy interventions that could contribute not only to improving housing conditions for the urban poor, but also to the general welfare of the slum population including health, education and environmental sustainability. While the framework will be calibrated and validated for a city in India, Ahmedabad, the technological development of integrating DES, GIS, and ABM into a single framework could be used to study other urban systems both in the developing and developed world. In addition to the urban policy applications of this research, this project will contribute to the development of future scientists and researchers by involving them in the project. In the US, a post-doctoral researcher will be supported and there will be active involvement of and collaboration with graduate students and faculty at India's Center for Environmental Planning and Technology University. The project also contains a community development component through the engagement of a non-governmental organization working with slum communities in India. This group will help empower people in slum communities by contributing various aspects of the modeling efforts, for example, their assistance in the mapping of slums. With the help of these organizations we expect to introduce the framework and disseminate the findings to various stakeholders in India, seek ways to generalize the framework to apply it in other cities, and generate further research interest in the geography and spatial sciences community about this topic. Once completed, the model and associated data will be made publicly available via a website to be used by others interested in it.