Multi-Criteria Disaster Vulnerability Assessment: Critical Infrastructure, Human Behavior, and Public Policy

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD

Investigators

Abstract

Engineers often quantify disaster vulnerability solely based on the physical integrity of the civil infrastructure in a community and the subsequent impact of structural failures caused by disaster-related damage. However, the knowledge of occupants about their built environment and its vulnerability to disasters as well as the quality of institutional emergency planning will play significant roles in measuring vulnerability. Additionally, safety policy implementation that dictates risk mitigation measures, whether they are retrofits of buildings or emergency training of staff, will also contribute to the overall quantification of vulnerability. The purpose of this project is to develop the tools necessary to model the risk of critical infrastructure to natural hazards in terms of vulnerability of the physical infrastructure, the disaster preparedness of building occupants, and the safety policies and implementation that govern these areas. We will combine public health, social science, and engineering disciplines to develop an agent-based model that captures the performance of structures and the behavior of individuals in those buildings during and immediately following a seismic event. Our computational framework will also simulate the implementation of current safety legislation, and will be used to compare the vulnerability of various critical infrastructure systems; we will also test future preparedness intervention strategies and model guidelines not yet in place. The assessment framework developed in the project will guide other systems-level work in exploring new methods for quantifying community vulnerability. The quantitative framework for assessing disaster vulnerability proposed here will serve as a vehicle to bring together cutting-edge research and education from various disciplines: disaster infrastructure risk assessment, emergency preparedness of health workers, and public health law and policy. The incorporation of the agent-based model developed in this project into a visualization tool to redesign existing training exercises ensures transparency in the methodology as well as broad dissemination of the work to other researchers and the healthcare community. Additionally, this project will also target education and mentoring of students from the K-12 level to the post-graduate level: the Sensor Technology and Infrastructure Risk Mitigation (STIRM) Laboratory will host earthquake-engineering clinics for K-12 students; the PI will teach her undergraduate course in the new experimental learning facility at Johns Hopkins University, the "eStudio," designed to promote an active teaching and learning environment; the principal investigators will guest lecture in each other's graduate courses to ensure the education of a future generation of professionals in multidisciplinary thinking; and the PIs will serve as mentors in the new EERI post-graduation internship program to educate recent graduates in multidisciplinary research methods.