IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Water, Energy, Food, and Climate Relationships in a Decision Making Context

Perrone Debra, Nashville TN

Investigators

Abstract

The proposed work as an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) participant would expand the current work of the researcher which is currently focused on developing a comprehensive understanding of the complex tradeoffs and risks involved in water, energy, and food management. The proposed work for IIASA will focus on estimating how demand side management of U.S. water resources may be affected by anthropogenic induced climate change. Historical data on and assumptions regarding future trends of population, economic growth, technological development, and resources will be used to make a portfolio of scenarios. These scenarios will be used in conjunction with climate scenarios to estimate how water demands from thermoelectric, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and public sectors, as well as water requirements for ecosystem services, may change over the next seventy years. Increased population and patterns of population density, economic growth, and development all increase water, energy, and food demands. The impacts of a changing climate will exacerbate competition for these resources, especially given the strong interrelationships among water, energy, and food. Although demand for individual resources has been studied, a systematic evaluation of readily available data has not been undertaken to evaluate water-energy-food linkages. Although these estimates cannot possibly consider the full range of plausible futures, they will expose uncertainties and promote further understanding of the impacts of linkages among climate change, resource use, and socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results of this work will be used with a multiattribute utility analysis (MAU) that will be designed to serve as a stakeholder based decision-support framework; such a framework will allow U.S. stakeholders to co-manage water, energy, and food resources in a more informed manner. Dissemination of the anticipated results is a key aspect of this work, as the results are intended to be used to support decision makers and their informational needs. All results posed in this proposal will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national conferences, and available on the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment webpage. In addition to gaining important research skills, conducting research at IIASA will expand the researcher?s knowledge base and allow her to gain additional perspective on global environmental, economic, social, and political issues. The opportunity to network with peers who have similar interests will foster future partnerships. Resource security and decision-making are multifaceted and complex research areas; experience and training gained with respect to interdisciplinary and international collaboration will strongly contribute to the researcher?s career goals.