Case Studies of Causal Discovery with Model Search

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA

Investigators

Abstract

This award provides support for a workshop on Case Studies of Causal Discovery with Model Search, to be held at Carnegie Mellon University in October 2012. Computer scientists, statisticians, and philosophers have created a precise mathematical framework for representing causal systems called "Graphical Causal Models." This framework has supported the rigorous description of causal model spaces and the notion of empirical indistinguishability/equivalence within such spaces, which has in turn enabled computer scientists to develop asymptotically reliable model search algorithms for efficiently searching these spaces. However, the conditions under which these methods are practically useful in applied science are unknown. The investigators will hold a 3-day workshop on methodological issues germane to practical causal discovery that brings together scholars from genetics, biology, economics, fMRI-based cognitive neuroscience, climate research, public health, sociology, and education research, all of whom have successfully applied computerized search for causal models. The goals of the workshop are to: (1) to identify strategies for applying causal model search to diverse domain-specific scientific questions; (2) to identify and discuss methodological challenges that arise when applying causal model search to real-world scientific problems; and (3) to take concrete steps toward creating an interdisciplinary community of researchers interested in applied causal model search. The project will advance our scientific understanding of conditions under which one can efficiently and reliably gain causal knowledge from both experimental and non-experimental data, especially in contexts in which background theory is weak. It will provide a set of real-world cases, problems, and domains that will spur practical advances in causal discovery, which affects people's everyday lives through public policy, medical, social, and behavioral sciences. Specific products of the workshop include plans for a book-length volume of case-studies, possibly a blueprint for an online, sustainable, extendable repository of data sets and supporting analyses, and a plan for ongoing workshops.