IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program: Health Transitions and Social Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa

Payne Collin F, Philadelphia PA

Investigators

Abstract

The proposed work as an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Summer Scientist Program (YSSP) participant would extend the research by investigating the micro-level impact of social capital factors on the aging process by application of a novel methodological approach. The intellectual merit of the YSSP research collaboration with Warren Sanderson and Vegard Skirbekk is to address the fact that existing methodologies for multi-state life table (MSLT) calculation using longitudinal data are not able to incorporate time-varying covariates into analysis. In the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), disaggregating individuals into meaningful sub-categories by time-invariant factors is difficult though age, sex, education, and regional differences may play a substantial role in the aging process, time-varying factors such as HIV status, presence of adult children (and their HIV status), marital status, and agricultural profits may also be important for healthy aging. MSLT models allow for the modeling of the complex processes of disablement and recovery inherent to the aging process, and generate expectancies of years lived in various categorizations of disability. Though not fully developed or widely used, Yang & Hall (2008) propose a potentially useful method of incorporating time-varying factors into a MSLT model using a simultaneous equations approach to limited dependent variable modeling. During the time at IIASA, the student would further develop and apply this method for incorporating time-varying covariates into MSLT calculation, and analyze how these covariates may reduce/delay disability onset and increase survivorship. The YSSP research will directly contribute to dissertation plans, as well as addressing a broader impact that is in substantial need of further research. Aging in SSA is an issue that will be of increasing importance in the near future--the population of adults aged 45+ will grow more rapidly in the next decades than that of any younger 10-year age group in many SSA countries, and currently available data suggest that mortality rates from chronic, disabling disease in SSA are higher than almost all other regions of the world (WHO 2005). Functional disability is an exceedingly important topic in rural communities of the developing world, where government-based social services may be lacking or nonexistent. Beyond the basics of population health, extremely little is known about processes of disability, morbidity, and mortality in these populations. Currently existing research on aging in the developing world has not been able to give a comprehensive overview of the transition pathways from healthy life to disability to death. The research will focus on how processes of aging and the development of functional disabilities play out in SSA. In particular, the focus would be on how these processes may differ by individual-level characteristics, something which has received very little previous research in this context. The primary aim of the proposed work is to remedy this blank area of our knowledge of health, disability, and the life course in SSA, both to contribute to the scholarly community and identify areas of need where donors/policymakers could effect change.